How the oracle works

The oracle produces one number per monthly cohort: the settlement index that decides what every position in that month’s RAMX or NANDX market pays. This page explains where that number comes from, who can influence it, and how you can check it.

The short version

• Each cohort tracks a fixed list of public price sources for memory (RAMX) or storage (NANDX) products.
• Every source’s movement is measured against its own opening value. The index starts at 100.
• Sources are grouped into buckets with fixed weights that add up to 100%. The index move is the weighted sum of the bucket moves.
• At expiry, each bucket settles on a median of its sources’ prices over the last five weekdays.
• The operator rules on ordinary disputes first. Unresolved disputes, and buckets without enough sources, go to the five-seat council, where three matching votes decide.

What the index measures

Each source is one public price for one defined product, for example a module price on a price-tracking page. The source definition fixes the product, variant, price field, region, and currency. See Evidence rules.

For an accepted opening value P_open and a later accepted value P_t, the source’s movement is:

delta = P_t / P_open - 1

Measuring each source against its own opening lets a retailer and a distributor quote different prices and still be compared fairly. The oracle never averages raw prices from different channels.

Sources are grouped into buckets. Within a bucket every source counts equally, and the bucket moves by the median of its sources’ movements. Support capital behind a source does not give it more weight. Each bucket has a fixed weight from the product’s manifest, and the weights add up to 100%:

index move = sum over buckets of (bucket weight × bucket move)
settlement index = 100 × (1 + index move)

The program works in basis points and rounds the final value half up. A 3% weighted move settles the index at 103. The exact formulas are in the Math appendix.

Who set the launch month’s sources

The first RAMX and NANDX months on Solana mainnet, the launch month, did not use open, bonded source formation. The governance council approved a launch document instead: a fixed registry of public price pages with each one’s bucket, weight and printed opening value, recorded on chain in one launch per index. Each index launches this way once; every later month forms through the ordinary process below.

Market	Sources	Buckets	Source pages
RAMX	13	One per source	memorymarket.com RDIMM, UDIMM, and SODIMM price pages
NANDX	22	One per source	memorymarket.com channel SSD, OEM SSD, flash wafer, eMMC, and UFS price pages

All sources come from one website, so a problem with that site affects the whole index. Each bucket holds a single source, which also changes how the month settles. See Settlement.

Game Mode updates and challenges run through the ordinary steps below.

The ordinary monthly process

The program also supports open, bonded source formation. An oracle month then moves through these stages, which the Oracle page shows as Current Stage:

Stage	Length	What happens
Scramble	4 days	Contributors propose public sources with a listing bond and back proposals with support bonds.
Challenge	2 days	Proposals can be disputed with a challenge bond. New proposals and support stop.
Freeze	1 day	Disputes are resolved and the source list is locked.
Opening	1 day	Each source’s opening value is submitted with archived evidence and a bond.
Game Mode	Until expiry	Contributors report changed values with evidence and a bond. Sources and weights stay fixed.

All bonds are in USDC, and every product bucket must end Freeze with at least one surviving source. Bond sizes and reward budgets are set separately for each month and bucket. See Bounties and rewards.

Game Mode updates

During Game Mode, a contributor can report that a source’s price changed:

1. The contributor commits the update with its bond, then reveals it shortly after, so others cannot copy it before it is public.
2. For at least 24 hours after the reveal, anyone else can challenge it with a corrected value and their own evidence.
3. After 24 hours, the operator can accept an unchallenged update. A challenged update is resolved as described in Challenges and disputes.

A source with no accepted update keeps its last accepted value. Reporting an unchanged price is not an update and earns nothing. Nobody can add or remove sources, change weights, or swap a broken source for a new one during Game Mode.

Settlement

Every cohort expires at 00:00 UTC on its expiry date. Each bucket’s settlement value is computed in two steps:

1. Over time: for each source, take the median of its accepted values observed in the five UTC weekdays (Monday to Friday) up to expiry.
2. Across sources: take the median of those results within the bucket.

The fixed bucket weights then combine the bucket moves into the index.

If a source has no accepted value in that window, it carries forward its latest accepted value from before the window. Carry-forward is not a new observation and earns no reward.

A bucket needs enough eligible sources to settle by itself: at least three, or at least half of its sources if that is more. If it falls short, the lookback is extended once by another five weekdays. If it still falls short, the bucket goes to the council. The council can only choose between values already recorded on chain for that bucket. It cannot enter a new price, and the oracle never drops a bucket and re-weights the rest.

Caution

In the launch month every bucket holds one source, below the three-source minimum, so every bucket goes to the council. The council confirms each bucket’s measured median, computed from its source’s recorded values as above, or keeps its last accepted value; it cannot enter a value of its own. For the launch month it can rule as soon as three seats agree, from the day after expiry.

After expiry there is a 24-hour grace period. New update challenges can still be filed during it, and disputes already admitted can finish afterwards. When every dispute is closed, anyone can finalize the oracle month. The settlement record is then written on chain. It must carry signatures from the program’s registered settlement signers, who cannot be the operator’s keys, and its price must equal the value computed from the finalized month. Payouts follow the market lifecycle.

Checking the oracle yourself

Open Oracle in the web app and choose a Market and Month.

• The summary shows Current Stage, Source Records, Source Links, and when the data was Updated. “Last known” in front of a stage means the latest refresh could not confirm it.
• The Sources tab lists one row per website with its Link, number of Records, and combined Weight. Select View to see each record’s Status, Weight, and Source ID.
• The Contribute tab lists the Petri commands for the current stage’s contributions. Contributions are signed with your own wallet in Petri; the web app does not submit them.

Each on-chain source record holds its locator, opening value, current value, and observation count. Opening and update evidence is stored on chain permanently.

Read Evidence rules, Challenges and disputes, and Oracle roles for the details behind each step.